Can 'Zero Dark Thirty' Win the Oscar for Best Picture Even Though Kathryn Bigelow Got Snubbed for Best Director?

I just got back from finally seeing Zero Dark Thirty, and — WOW — did that film blow me away. Phenomenal. Just phenomenal. Zero Dark Thirty is almost three hours long after you add in time for trailers, but it flew by, a pretty impressive feat for a film that had to covered a decade's worth of story. I've been on the Jennifer Lawrence bandwagon since seeing Silver Linings Playbook, but I think Jessica Chastain is a serious, serious threat to take Best Actress from her now.

I'd love to be able to say the same thing about Kathryn Bigelow when it comes to Best Director, but I can't. You can't pick someone to win an award when the Academy didn't even nominate that person for the award. I didn't understand this snub before seeing Zero Dark Thirty, and I understand this snub even less now. It's unjustifiable that Bigelow wasn't included among the five Best Director nominees.

With Bigelow not being nominated, what are the chances Zero Dark Thirty could win Best Picture?

Personally, I'm torn between Zero Dark Thirty and Lincoln as my film of 2012 now, and considering the strength of Zero Dark Thirty after its multiple critics groups wins, its a serious contender for Best Picture.

Here's the problem though. In the history of the Academy Awards, a film that didn't have its director nominated won Best Picture only three times. Just three times. Out of 84 ceremonies. That's 3.6 percent of the time. The other 96.4 percent of Best Picture winners all had directors that were at least nominated for Best Picture. If Zero Dark Thirty is going to win Best Picture, it'll have to do what Driving Miss Daisy did in 1990, what Grand Hotel did in 1932, and what Wings did at the very first Oscars back in 1929.

Does anyone know what Academy voters were thinking when they left Bigelow off their ballots?