Fallon! Leno! Letterman! Conan? 5 Questions About the Future of Late-Night TV That Must Be Answered

With the evidence mounting that NBC is plotting to oust Jay Leno from his Tonight Show throne and install Jimmy Fallon as the network's new king of late night, there's already a lot that we know about the pending change. ABC's shift of Jimmy Kimmel Live! to 11:35 p.m. spooked NBC, forcing the network to come to the conclusion that they would be better off going for a younger audience with Fallon than if they were to keep Leno, the host who currently draws the best late-night TV ratings. According to a report on Wednesday, not only will NBC give The Tonight Show to Fallon, but it will return the franchise to New York City for the first time since Johnny Carson moved it to Burbank, Calif., in 1972.

Popculturology believes that the changing of the guard at The Tonight Show will set in motion a wave of changes unlike anything the late-night landscape has seen before. There are five big questions that must be answered. Head past the jump to start finding the answers.

1. When will Jimmy Fallon replace Jay Leno as the host of The Tonight Show?

The "when" in all of this may seem like a minor detail, but the timing of the Tonight Show switch will play a huge role in how everything goes down. Based on what we've heard so far, it sounds like there are two schools of thought within NBC. Many executives at the network want to move Fallon to The Tonight Show in February 2014, allowing the network to take advantage of the Sochi Winter Olympics, turning the ratings behemoth into a weeks-long advertising campaign for the new Tonight Show host. With Leno's contract going through late-2014, a February switch would also allow NBC to avoid having to deal with the repercussions of a betrayed Leno possibly going to another network and competing with Fallon immediately. When NBC gave Conan O'Brien The Tonight Show in 2009, the network created The Jay Leno Show, an ill-advised 10 p.m. nightly program to keep Leno from jumping ship. Leno obviously wouldn't go for such a deal this time around. If NBC went with February, they could stash Leno away for a few months while Fallon found his footing as Tonight Show host.

Not everyone at NBC is on board with a February 2014 swap, though. Lorne Michaels has slowly assumed a greater position of power at the network, being able to claim not only Saturday Night Live but also Late Night with Jimmy Fallon and a few of the network's sitcoms. It's Michaels' opinion that a February move would rush the transition, believing that November would make more sense. NBC wouldn't have a massive television event like the Olympics to build a promotional campaign around, but as SNL is one of the few bright spots NBC has, they would be wise to not tick off Michaels.

POPCULTUROLOGY'S ANSWER: The NBC execs pulling for February 2014 will get their way. The Olympics are too big of an opportunity to pass up, especially considering the network has already woven Fallon into the event in previous years. Also, if NBC has the chance to hide Leno away for a few months while launching the next era of The Tonight Show, they would be wise to take advantage of that. One thing to watch out for: If NBC goes with February and uses the Olympics to promote Fallon, the move would make Jimmy Kimmel a lock to host the 2014 Oscars, which air in February on ABC, giving that network its own event to remind viewers who was already established at 11:35.

2. Where does Jay Leno go after The Tonight Show?

The answer to this question has always been NBC's biggest fear when it comes to picturing the post-Leno version of The Tonight Show. The network was so terrified of finding out the answer in 2009, they allowed Leno to stick around. The Jay Leno Show was a disaster, dragging down local news ratings, which in turn decreased the built-in audience for O'Brien's version of The Tonight Show. O'Brien never had the chance to show what kind of numbers he could pull in under normal circumstances. No matter when NBC hands the reins of The Tonight Show to Fallon, Leno will have several options for the next phase of his career.

There's the chance that Leno does nothing, choosing to quietly fade into retirement. That's not Leno, though. The Tonight Show is his life. If you've read Bill Carter's The War for Late Night, you know how much the program dominates Leno's life. Sadly, that doesn't show in the comedian's lack of ambition to be anything but a safe and homogenized late-night host.

Odds are Leno looks for a new show, especially if he has the opportunity to strike back at NBC for casting him aside when he was still at the top of the ratings game. ABC used to be a popular spot in the guessing game of where late-night hosts would go, but with Kimmel now at 11:35, there's nothing ABC and Leno could gain from each other. ABC already has a A-guy and Leno wouldn't be interested in working at 12:35 a.m. As O'Brien showed us, basic cable is always an option. While he wound up at TBS, a handful of other networks including FX, USA and TNT expressed interest in bringing O'Brien to their network. Then there's always Fox, the last of the big networks (and one that beats NBC in ratings) to not have a late-night franchise. If Leno were to go to Fox, he would be able to directly compete with Fallon and The Tonight Show.

POPCULTUROLOGY'S ANSWER: Leno will go to cable. Fox is always an easy guess, but people forget that unlike NBC, CBS and ABC, Fox doesn't have an 11 p.m. news program, leaving a late-night host without a reliable lead-in. As O'Brien discovered in his talks with Fox, the network doesn't have the same control over its affiliates as the NBC, CBS and ABC do, making it impossible for Fox to offer a guaranteed wide rollout. Those Simpsons and Two and Half Men repeats are cheaper to run and often bring in the same advertising dollars. While we're predicting Leno will find his next home on cable, it's hard to determine which one. FX has a reputation for smarter and edgier shows, but then again, they're the ones airing Charlie Sheen's Anger Management. No matter where Leno winds up, he won't go away. Leno is a cockroach. Surviving is what he does best.

3. Would David Letterman now retire and who would replace him?

The bad blood between David Letterman and Leno extends back to when Leno was picked to host The Tonight Show after Carson, a surprising move as many people (Letterman included) saw Letterman as the heir to the Tonight Show throne. Letterman reveled in the bad press Leno received during the O'Brien debacle.

Like Leno, Letterman's contract is up in 2014. If NBC ends Leno's stint as Tonight Show host in February, Letterman has the chance to claim victory by staying on as the host of Late Show with David Letterman through the end of his own contract. At that point, Letterman, who'll be 67 then, can retire knowing that he was the last man standing in his feud with Leno. Letterman has already adopted a laid-back approach to his show, taping his Friday show on Thursdays to shorten his week. It wouldn't be any shocker to see him retire.

The in-house CBS favorite to replace Letterman as Late Show host is Craig Ferguson, who has hosted The Late Late Show since 2005. Ferguson has developed into a well-received and natural late-night host, reformatting The Late Late Show in his own image, often incorporating very intimate details of his private life into monologues. Like Late Show, The Late Late Show is produced by Letterman's Worldwide Pants Incorporated.

There's a wild card this situation, though, as a deposed yet beloved network late-night host currently bides his time on basic cable. Yup, O'Brien. While his stint as host of The Tonight Show didn't go well, we've already mentioned that the deck was stacked against O'Brien from the beginning. Letterman and O'Brien both share the fact that they lost The Tonight Show at the hands of Leno, a bond that they've discussed on several occasions.



Oh, did we mention that O'Brien's contract at TBS is also up in 2014? Pretty convenient, huh? Let's not forget that by all rights, O'Brien should be the host of The Tonight Show right now. He's not meant to finish out his days on basic cable.

POPCULTUROLOGY'S ANSWER: Letterman will call it quits once his contract is up in 2014 with O'Brien replacing him as host of Late Show. If he outlasts Leno, there's nothing left for Letterman to prove. He'll have triumphed over his greatest foe (no, not Sarah Palin), and he'll have passed Carson as the longest-running late-night host in the process. By handing CBS's 11:35 late-night show to O'Brien, Letterman will have the pleasure of sticking it to NBC and Leno one final time. Let's not forget that this wouldn't be the first time Letterman's would pass the late-night torch to O'Brien. And NBC? Thanks to its awful handling of the 2009 Tonight Show transition, NBC went from having Leno, O'Brien and Fallon to built a late-night franchise around to only having Fallon in 2014. NBC will have to watch O'Brien compete directly with Fallon from CBS on a nightly basis thanks to their poor management. Ferguson is a great host, but he doesn't quite have the pull to be an 11:35 guy. Together, O'Brien and Ferguson would give CBS the one-two punch that NBC will now find itself without.

4. If Conan O'Brien follows David Letterman as host of Late Show, will O'Brien return to New York City?

When O'Brien took over The Tonight Show in 2009, NBC had him pack up his life and his staff and head west to California, leaving behind the city that he had built his Late Night persona around. People may have not realized it, but New York City was a character on Late Night just as much as the Masturbating Bear was. Moving to Los Angeles changed O'Brien's brand of comedy, forcing him to stay on a studio lot and robbing him of the chance to mingle with people on the city streets.

With all signs pointing to Fallon's version of The Tonight Show returning to New York City, would CBS allow an O'Brien-led version of Late Show to trade coasts? O'Brien has already uprooted his family and staff once for a job change. Would he draw the line at doing it again?

This is where it gets tricky. Under the current NBC/CBS alignment, the networks split the media capitals between the two timeslots. NBC has Los Angeles at 11:35 and New York at 12:35. CBS has New York at 11:35 and Los Angeles at 12:35. When The Tonight Show returns to New York, NBC will have two shows based in the Big Apple, providing Late Night stays where it always has been. Providing CBS goes with O'Brien at 11:35, the could capitalize on NBC abandoning Los Angeles at that timeslot by allowing O'Brien to have Late Show come to him. This would also prevent ABC's Jimmy Kimmel Live! from having a monopoly on Los Angeles in the early time period.

CBS bailing on New York City at 11:35 would create other problems though. Letterman currently tapes at the Ed Sullivan Theater, which is a registered landmark and was the place where the Beatles made their first American appearance. It's not as if CBS would be walking away from some random studio. While has gone through studio after studio thanks to the hosting changes at The Tonight Show, CBS's main studio is a historic powerhouse. On top of this, Ferguson currently tapes in Los Angeles, meaning that this scenario would lead to CBS clustering its late-night programming on the west coast with NBC doing the same on the east coast.

POPCULTUROLOGY'S ANSWER: While we would love to see O'Brien return to New York City, Late Show would go west for him, sending Ferguson to New York City in the process. With The Tonight Show giving O'Brien the reason to go to Los Angeles and TBS's Conan giving him reason to stick around with much of the same staff, the odds of the host packing everything up again for another cross-country trek are slim. If The Tonight Show can return to New York City, Late Show can can start a new phase in California. CBS isn't stupid — they're not going to surrender Los Angeles to Kimmel or New York to NBC.

5. With Fallon leaving Late Night, who's in line to replace him as that show's host?

OK, this is probably the hardest of all these questions to answer. When O'Brien was in line to replace to Leno, Fallon was the clear choice to step in at Late Night. After NBC's bumbling of that transition, the network was left without an obvious successor for Fallon. There was a report a few weeks ago that Howard Stern would replace Fallon, but we're calling BS on that one. Stern isn't the kind of guy who wants to be a network's No. 2 at 12:35. Late Night is a proving ground, and Stern's already proven himself. Also, NBC would probably wind up paying Stern way more than a 12:35 host should earn.

Tina Fey's name was tossed around a bit too, which we think is a ridiculous concept. Whoever made that suggested should be stripped of their pop culture expert license. Fey has already had a network show and is now focusing on a movie career. While she has a development deal with NBC and may return to TV in future, there's no way that'll be at 12:35.

Chelsea Lately host Chelsea Handler has already come up now and then as a possibility. Handler's perfect for cable, but we just don't see her fitting in at NBC, much less as a compliment to the kind of Tonight Show Fallon would run.

Here's the secret to finding clues to how this question will be answered: Follow Lorne Michaels. Just as Michaels groomed Fallon for Late Night and now The Tonight Show, Michaels is the key to figuring out who the next host of Late Night will be. From the SNL roster, the name that sticks out the most is Seth Meyers. As head writer and Weekend Update anchor, Meyers has proven that he can not only script comedy but also deliver jokes, making him the perfect combination of the past two Late Night hosts, O'Brien (a writer) and Fallon (the jokester).

POPCULTUROLOGY'S ANSWER: Expect Meyers to fill Fallon's seat after this switch is over. The SNL head writer was in the running to replace Regis Philbin on Live! with Kelly, but an early morning show never seemed like the right fit for him. Meyers would be perfect at 12:35, sticking with the time of night he knows best in addition to remaining with Michaels and NBC. If the network gets their way and this transition happens in February 2014 instead of November 2014, NBC is going to have to make it up to Michaels somehow. If they won't give him the timing he things is best, perhaps giving Late Night to one of his people will make up for it.