The Bill Kuchman Chronicle Oscar Preview

After a year's worth of movie watching, we've reached the biggest day of a film buff's year: The Oscars. Now that my Oscar pool ballot has been filled out and officially logged in, I'm ready to offer my thoughts on who should win and who will actually win on Sunday night. In fact, I'm even going to throw in my thoughts on who got snubbed when it comes to the awards too.

BEST PICTURE

Nominees: The Artist, The Descendants, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Tree of Life, War Horse

Who should win: The Descendants. A film with a real story that didn't need gimmicks or CGI to make it work. Strong performances across the board, with child actors who could actually act (I'm looking at you lost/confused-looking kid from Hugo and Jeopardy alum kid from Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close).

Who will win: The Artist. This race was actually a race a few months ago, but The Artist has solidified support over the past few weeks. Barring a big surprise, the Academy will have succumbed to the allure of a black-and-white and silent film. If there is an upset, look for The Help or Hugo to be the last film standing.

Who got snubbed: The Ides of March. I'm going to continue fighting for this movie to be recognized among 2011's best films.

BEST DIRECTOR

Nominees: Woody Allen (Midnight in Paris), Michel Hazanavicius (The Artist), Martin Scorsese (Hugo), Terrence Malick (The Tree of Life), Alexander Payne (The Descendants)

Who should win: Michel Hazanavicius. Despite The Artist relying on the gimmick of being both a silent film and a black-and-white film, it does use the gimmick well. Hazanavicius deserves credit for that.

Who will win: Hazanavicius. We're not going to see a nail biter like we did last year with David Fincher and Tom Hooper.

Who got snubbed: Nicolas Winding Refn (Drive). Yup, another Ryan Gosling movie (this is going to be a trend in this column). Drive was stylized, original and very, very cool. Refn deserved recognition for this film, and while he did get that recognition from other awards, the Academy ignored him.

BEST ACTOR

Nominees: Demian Bichir (A Better Life), George Clooney (The Descendants), Jean Dujardin (The Artist), Gary Oldman (Tinker Tailor Solider Spy), Brad Pitt (Moneyball)

Who should win: I've actually gone back and forth on this one. George Clooney was excellent in The Descendants, but I'm going to say that Brad Pitt deserves this one. Giving what might be the best performance of his career, Pitt evoked Robert Redford in his portrayal of a baseball GM struggling to find success. Seriously, go watch All the President's Men and tell me you don't see Redford in Pitt's Moneyball performance.

Who will win: Jean Dujardin. Yet another race that swung over the past few days. Pitt managed to take the early, early lead with Clooney looking like the favorite for a good chunk of award season, but probably not long enough to hold off Dujardin. 

Who got snubbed: Ryan Gosling. Not only did Gosling give a dominating performance in The Ides of March, but he he received applause for his Drive and Crazy, Stupid, Love. roles. A lack of interest in award campaigning probably didn't help Gosling.

BEST ACTRESS

Nominees: Glenn Close (Albert Nobbs), Viola Davis (The Help), Rooney Mara (The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo), Meryl Streep (The Iron Lady), Michelle Williams (My Week with Marilyn)

Who should win: Rooney Mara. Did you see The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo? Mara may have gotten attention for her small The Social Network role, but after this film, there's no way you can ignore her. Powerful, quiet and frightening, Mara's version of Lisbeth Salander should be the favorite for this award, not just the nomination that snuck through.

Who will win: Viola Davis. Don't get me wrong, I liked Davis' The Help performance. I just think it falls into one of those weird situations where a lead wasn't even the best performance in her own movie, with Octavia Spencer's supporting role driving the film.

Who got snubbed: Overall, I was kind of disappointed with a lot of the female performances in 2011. This shouldn't be a reflecting on the actresses though — there just wasn't the material there to give them a chance to shine.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Nominees: Kenneth Branagh (My Week with Marilyn), Jonah Hill (Moneyball), Nick Nolte (Warrior), Christopher Plummer (Beginners), Max von Sydow (Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close)

Who should win: Christopher Plummer. The former Captain Von Trapp will finally get his Oscar at Sunday's celebration, taking the award home for his portrayal of a man coming out of the closet and discovering who he really was at the end of his life. The awards circuit sometimes gets caught in the trap of giving awards that serve as more lifetime achievement honors than actual recognition of performances, but Plummer really does deserve the Oscar for his Beginners performance.

Who will win: Plummer. If there's a lock at this year's awards, it's this one.

Who got snubbed: Two names should have been on the ballot but weren't. Albert Brooks (Drive) and Andy Serkis (Rise of the Planet of the Apes). Just about anyone I talked to who had seen Drive was shocked that Brooks didn't get nominated. With Serkis, it's clear that the Academy was unable to get over the fact that his was a motion-capture performance, which is unfortunate, as Serkis' Caesar was one of 2011's best characters.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nominees: Bérénice Bejo (The Artist), Jessica Chastain (The Help), Melissa McCarthy (Bridesmaids), Janet McTeer (Albert Nobbs), Octavia Spencer (The Help)

Who should win: Octavia Spencer. As I mentioned before, Spencer's performance in The Help was what drove the film.

Who will win: Spencer. Also a virtual lock, although there has been some chatter about a Melissa McCarthy upset.

Who got snubbed: Shailene Woodley (The Descendants). I was completely shocked (and disappointed) when they failed to call her name at the nominations announcement. Woodley, who most know solely from her role on an ABC Family show, made the huge step up to Oscar worthiness and did so while acting with a talent like George Clooney. My personal rankings of the year's performances actually had Woodley ahead of Spencer.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Midnight in Paris (Woody Allen), The Artist (Michel Hazanavicius), Bridesmaids (Kristen Wiig, Annie Mumolo), Margin Call (J.C. Chandor), A Separation (Asghar Farhadi)

Who should win: Margin Call. This was one of the great movies of 2011 that went mostly unseen. Not only did the film boast a cast of top-notch talent, but it was all centered on a screenplay that took a subject like the fiscal crisis and made it not only understandable but also turned it into a tense story.

Who will win: Midnight in Paris. I'm in the camp of people who didn't think Midnight in Paris was very impressive and didn't deserve a Best Picture nomination, but its screenplay was probably its biggest strength. The Academy will recognize Allen even if he doesn't show up.

Who got snubbed: 50/50. Will Reiser told a cancer story that didn't fall in the usual depressing, fatalistic rut that movies about cancer usually do. It's a shame that 50/50 didn't get a single nomination.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Nominees: Moneyball (Aaron Sorkin, Steven Zailian, Stan Chervin), The Descendants (Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash), Hugo (John Logan), The Ides of March (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon), Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan)

Who should win: Moneyball. Michael Lewis' book wasn't meant to be a movie starring Brad Pitt, and the struggles the film went through showed that. If it wasn't for his win last year for The Social Network, Sorkin would probably be up on the Oscar stage this year.

Who will win: The Descendants. Fun fact: Jim Rash plays Dean Pelton on Community (which returns March 15).

Who got snubbed: Don't really have a snub here, although a nomination or win for Harry Potter and the Dealthly Hallows — Part 2 would have been a small step to recognition the achievements of the eight-part franchise.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Nominees: A Cat in Paris, Chico & Rita, Kung Fu Panda 2, Puss in Boots, Rango

Who should win: Rango. While many acclaimed directors from the animated film realm have been making the jump to live action, Gore Verbinski did the opposite, leaving the world of Pirates of the Caribbean beyond to try his hand at animation. He did bring Johnny Depp with him though. 

Who will win: Rango.

Who got snubbed: I haven't seen it, but it sounds like the Academy stiffed The Adventures of Tintin. Once again, the motion-cap thing seems to have bothered them. I'm going to list moviegoers as getting snubbed too, considering that Pixar dropped the ball with Cars 2, it's only feature to not get nominated in this category since the category was introduced.