BOX OFFICE REPORT (APRIL 26-28): With 'Iron Man 3' Looming, 'Pain and Gain' Gets One Weekend on Top

While we have to discuss how things went at the box office this weekend, the real story is what's going to happen next weekend. Michael Bay's Pain and Gain took the top spot in its first weekend, but Iron Man 3 is going to dominate the box office when it debuts next weekend. The big question is how much the movie will make in the process. I've been saying that Iron Man 3 will make $190 million its opening weekend for months now, even though the fancy analysts were pegging it for $120 million, basing their predictions on how Iron Man and Iron Man 2 performed. The problem with that, though, is that Iron Man 3 is really the sequel to The Avengers, not Iron Man 2. The Avengers' record-busting run last year changed how we need to look at the box office potential of the Marvel Cinematic Universe.

It looks like the analysts are finally coming around to what I've been saying all along, thanks to Iron Man 3 bringing in $195.3 million in its international debut this weekend, outperforming The Avengers in the process. I read one report earlier on Sunday saying that Iron Man 3 could actually beat The Avengers' domestic opening weekend record of $207.4 million. If and when it happens, let's remember who's been saying it'll happen all along.

1. Pain and Gain (N)
$20.00 million ($20.00 million)
OK, so onto the news of the weekend. Bay first non-Transformers movie since 2005's The Island gave the director yet another No. 1 debut. I have to wonder, though, how many people when to see Pain and Gain thinking it was going to be some funny action/adventure movie starring Dwayne Johnson and Mark Wahlberg, when the film itself was actually pretty dark at times.

2. Oblivion (1)

$17.44 million ($64.73 million)

Last week, I predicted that Oblivion would hold on to the top spot at the box office in its second weekend, but while it wasn't able to do that, the Tom Cruise film still did well. I can't wait to see what director Joseph Kosinski does with Tron 3.

3. 42 (2)

$10.73 million ($69.08 million)
42 continued to play well at the box office, falling less than 40 percent in its third weekend.

4. The Big Wedding (N)

$7.50 million ($7.50 million)
I honestly didn't even realize The Big Wedding existed until about four days ago.

5. The Croods (3)

$6.60 million ($163.03 million)

NO.

Next week's predictions:

1. Iron Man 3

2. Pain and Gain

3. Oblivion

4. 42

5. The Croods

SOURCE: Box Office Mojo